-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- The popular uprising in Syria against the Alawi-led minority regime of Bashar al-Assad poses a serious challenge to U.S. national security in the Middle East .

As it fights for its survival amid escalating violence , the Syrian regime risks not only the deepening of civil strife in the country , but also provoking sectarian strife in the region , potentially drawing in U.S. military involvement . Washington has thus far been cautious in dealing with Syria , favoring strong words and sanctions against the regime and supporting Arab efforts to stop the violent military crackdown . But this could change as conditions in Syria deteriorate .

The recent arrival in Syria of Arab observers , as part of a Syrian-endorsed Arab League plan to stop the violence , has been met with mixed emotions . Syrian opposition members rejected the plan , which was mediated by Iraq , on the grounds that it will give the bestial regime another chance to continue its brutal policies .

Syria pipeline attached amid ongoing killing

Burhan Ghalioun , the head of the Syrian National Council opposition movement , emphasized that the observers can not do their work because `` they can not go where the authorities do n't want them to go . '' The Arab League 's initiative is further tainted by the contemptible presence of Sudanese Gen. Mohammad Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi , who heads the mission . Al-Dabi held high military intelligence and security positions in the government of President Omar al-Bashir , who is wanted on international charges of genocide in Darfur .

Meanwhile , Syria continues its slow , steady descent into sectarian strife . There is the militarization of segments of the opposition , as manifested by the creation of the Free Syrian Army , and the targeted sectarian murders committed in mixed towns , especially in Homs . Indeed , the recent twin suicide bombings in Damascus , regardless of the identity of the as-yet-unknown culprits , could well be a portent of what may happen in the multireligious , multiethnic country . This premonition of escalating violence is shared by many in the region , including those within the ranks of the Syrian opposition .

Syria is tightly linked both to the evolving Arab politics -- as influenced by the past year 's Arab popular uprisings -- and to the ongoing shifts in the Saudi and Iranian-led regional axes of powers that have resulted from withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq .

To be sure , it is the Arab League mission that reflects more the deep divisions splintering the Arab world : The Arab League , led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar , initially determined to pressure the autocratic Syrian regime into submission , but this resolve was weakened by Iraq questioning the League 's apparent double-standard policy . Its stance on Syria contrasts sharply with its position on Bahrain .

Saudi Arabia , along with other Gulf Cooperation Council countries , sent troops to Bahrain to help quash a Shi'a majority-dominated uprising against that kingdom 's Sunni monarchy .

Similarly , the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki , acting apparently in concert with Iran , has not concealed its desire to keep the Syrian regime in power . Iran has described the violence in Syria as part of a Western-Israeli conspiracy against the regime . And pro-Iranian forces in Iraq and Lebanon , such as the Sadrists and Hezbollah respectively , have expressed their readiness to support the Syrian regime .

Beyond this , the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq has apparently boosted the confidence not only of Iran and its proxies but also the Syrian regime .

Iran and Hezbollah laud the `` resistance '' for forcing the Americans from Iraq , and Syria no longer fears an American interference from Iraq . In fact , the regime believes that Iraq now affords Syria another strategic buffer with regard to a potential anti-Syrian military intervention ; the other being offered by Lebanon .

This will undoubtedly leave the international community facing neither an Arab nor a Russian solution . Russia recently introduced a draft resolution the U.N. Security Council on ending the violence in Syria . However , Russia , along with China , has had serious disagreements with other members of the Security Council , who favor sanctions against Damascus , including an arms embargo .

Washington will most likely confront urgent Arab and Syrian opposition requests for direct involvement in Syria . Already , Ghalioun has called on the Security Council to adopt the Arab initiative ; at the same time some Arab and Syrian opposition leaders have vocally called for a no-fly zone and NATO involvement to protect civilians .

But a word of caution . The danger of this kind of involvement lies in the grave and complex reality that Iran still considers the security of the Syrian regime as part of its own security , and that , while both Tehran and Damascus have been preparing for a conflict with United States since its invasion of Iraq in 2003 , including supporting proxy forces in the region , Washington has thus far pursued policies more reactive in nature to regional developments . Washington should be careful about falling into the duplicitous trap of Middle Eastern politics .

Washington must act within the context that Syria is already in the throes of civil strife , which can only intensify and possibly spill over into Lebanon or Iraq , and that the Arab states are fighting two wars . One is over the nature of future power in their capitals and the other is over which regional axis they will support .

Washington should also disabuse itself of the notion that the terminally ill Syrian regime will collapse soon . The regime has life support from Iran , Iraq and Lebanon , and thrives on terror and Arab schisms . This makes any reactive or reflexive American involvement in Syria fraught with uncertainties and serious risks .

Washington 's policies should focus now on expanding and organizing its cooperation with Turkey , Saudi Arabia and Qatar , which have deep interest in a change of power in Damascus ; supporting the Free Syrian Army through Saudi Arabia and Turkey ; strengthening sanctions against Syria in concert with regional and international allies , including placing sanctions on Sunni merchants closely associated with the regime. ; maintaining and supporting a strong diplomatic presence in Iraq and Lebanon ; seeking out Alawi and Christian political and military figures with the objective of reassuring them with the promise of political inclusion in the future of Syria .

Most importantly , Washington should not lead a campaign in Syria designed in the imperial corridors of the American capital itself .

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Robert G. Rabil .

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Robert Rabil says the popular uprising in Syria poses issues for U.S. foreign policy

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He says multiethnic nation headed for sectarian strife ; some opposition militarizing

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He says Syria linked to shifts in both Arab politics and Saudi and Iranian-led axes of power

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Rabil : U.S. must use caution , focus on ties with regional allies , strengthening sanctions